Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the country and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage with the basics. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. Both composes two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will win here and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has got something to learn from the alternative positions."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
